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☆ Euro zone economy narrowly skirts recession, stagnates in fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The euro zone economy stabilized in the fourth quarter of 2023, flash figures published by the European Union's statistics agency showed on Tuesday. The euro zone's seasonally-adjusted GDP was flat compared with the previous quarter and expanded by 0.1% versus the previous year. The French economy was steady in the fourth quarter, while Spain outperformed forecasts to expand by 0.6%. The U.S. economy smashed expectations for the end of the year, expanding by 3.3% in the fourth quarter. The latest euro zone inflation flash figures are due Thursday.

Persons: industrials, Bert Colijn Organizations: ING, U.S, European Central Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Spain, U.S

☆ Euro zone inflation sinks to 2.4%, below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, flash figures showed Thursday. Inflation in the euro zone's largest economies, Germany and France, has dropped to 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. ECB officials have repeatedly stressed that it is too early to declare victory over price rises in the 20-member euro zone bloc, as they monitor potential pressures from wage increases and energy markets. Separate data released by statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday showed that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 6.5% in October, despite a contraction in the euro zone economy in the third quarter. "For the ECB, signs of an imminent victory on inflation are mounting," Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, said in a note, adding that some of the impact from existing monetary tightening was yet to be felt.

Persons: Ying Tang, —, Mathieu Savary, Bert Colijn Organizations: Aachen, Getty, Reuters, European Central Bank, Energy, ECB, BCA Research, Eurostat, ING Locations: Aachen, Germany, France, European

☆ Eurozone Inflation Falls Faster Than Expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Liz Alderman | More About Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 3.6 percent, a sharply slower pace than previous months. “The price to pay is higher interest rates, more difficult financing and therefore an economic slowdown,” he added. Interest rates were raised from below zero and are now at the highest level in the central bank’s two-decade history. But Europe is facing a drawn-out economic slowdown as high interest rates and the lingering impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to curb activity. to start lowering interest rates next year, possibly before the summer.

Persons: ” Bert Colijn, ” Bruno Le Maire, Christine Lagarde, Colijn Organizations: ING Bank, European Central Bank, ”, Eurostat, France Inter Locations: Ukraine, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Europe, United States

☆ Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT

The inflation rate fell to 2.3% in November. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected inflation to ease to 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.8% in November from 4.3% the previous month. "But the inflation rate will fall to below 3% as early as the beginning of next year," Wollmershaeuser said. Economists pay close attention to German inflation data, as Germany publishes its figures one day before the euro zone inflation data release.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Timo Wollmershaeuser, Wollmershaeuser, Commerzbank's, Ralph Solveen, Solveen, Bert Colijn, Colijn, Miranda Murray, Maria Martinez, Linda Pasquini, Sharon Singleton, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Union, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Spanish

☆ Euro zone business activity fell again in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity eased in November but remained broadbased, suggesting the bloc's economy will contract again this quarter as consumers continue to rein in spending, a survey showed. "Ongoing weakness in the euro zone business surveys suggests a recession is on the horizon. The new business index rose to 46.7 from 45.6. Manufacturing activity, which has contracted every month since July 2022, fell again in November. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but resolutely below breakeven.

Persons: Mike Bell, Stephane Mahe, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Christina Fincher Organizations: PMI, P Global, Reuters, Morgan Asset Management, REUTERS, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: October's, J.P, France, Nantes, Britain

☆ Euro zone inflation, growth slow as ECB hikes weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Euro zone inflation lowest since July 2021 in OctGDP shrinks slightly in Q3FRANKFURT, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro zone hit a two-year low a month after its economy began contracting, data showed on Tuesday, illustrating the dual impact of a steady diet of European Central Bank's interest rate hikes. But the brisk decline from the double-digit figures of just a year ago is coming at a cost: the euro zone economy dipped by 0.1% in the three months to September, according to a separate Eurostat release, and is flirting with a recession. "The data leaves the ECB firmly on hold," Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Natixis, said. "It's now down to weaker demand grinding down inflation and that's a slow process," Natixis' Schumacher said. "Still, continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty alongside the impact of higher rates on the economy will weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters."

Persons: Dirk Schumacher, It's, Natixis, Schumacher, Bert Colijn, Francesco Canepa, John Stonestreet Organizations: ECB, ING, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, European

☆ Euro zone economy likely contracted this quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely contract this quarter and won't return to growth anytime soon, a survey showed, as the dampening effect of central banks' long campaign of interest rates rises becomes clearer. HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August's 33-month low of 46.7. "The increase in the ECB key interest rate by 450 basis points in the meantime is slowing down the economy in all euro countries." OUT OF ORDERSeptember's fall in overall activity in the euro zone came despite firms barely increasing their charges. The services PMI rose to 48.4 from 47.9 but spent its second month below the breakeven mark this year.

Persons: Christoph Weil, France's, Andrew Bailey, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, August's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, ECB, PMI, European Union, Bank of England, Carrefour, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Commerzbank, Europe's, Britain, Montesson, Paris, France, Spain

☆ Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed. Euro zone government bond yields and the euro tumbled after Wednesday's data as traders bet the ECB may soon pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. SERVICE SECTOR SLIDESThe euro zone services PMI sank as indebted consumers feeling the pinch from rising borrowing costs reined in spending. The services output prices index remained elevated at 55.9, albeit the lowest since October 2021 and below July's 56.1. "Another weak PMI for the euro zone confirms a sluggish economy with recession as a downside risk.

Persons: Mark Wall, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson, Toby Chopra Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, PMI, Deutsche Bank, ECB, P Global, REUTERS, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: Germany, July's, Europe's, Paris, France

☆ Euro zone inflation slides more than expected in June, but core rate ticks higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Euro zone inflation hit 5.5% in June, according to preliminary data, coming in lower than analyst expectations — but core inflation, which excludes energy and food, remains stubbornly high and rose to 5.4%. Core inflation had eased to 5.3% in May, from 5.6% in April. Some media reports attributed the sticky core rate to an increase in German rail ticket costs, after the country this time last year offered a discounted pass. The European Central Bank also revised its headline and core inflation expectations for the next couple of years during its interest rate meeting. "Wage-price spiral, which are price increases caused by higher inflation, remains a clear burden for core-inflation.

Persons: Bert Colijn, Christine Lagarde, it's, Clémence Dachicourt, Lagarde Organizations: Central, ING, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Morningstar Investment Management Locations: European, Sintra, Portugal

☆ Inflation in Europe drops to lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe has fallen to its slowest pace since Russia invaded Ukraine, bolstering the case for the region’s central bank to bring interest rate hikes to an end soon. That’s the lowest rate of inflation since February 2022, when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor, sending global energy prices soaring. The pace of food price rises eased for the second month running in May, while energy prices actually fell. Inflation has fallen sharply in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, national data published Wednesday showed. Separate data published Tuesday showed lending by banks in the euro area stagnated further in April, with loans to households barely growing at all.

Persons: Price, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, ” Franziska Palmas, ”, Bert Colijn Organizations: London CNN, Russia, European Central Bank, ECB, US Federal Reserve, Bank of, Capital Economics, ING Locations: Europe, Ukraine, Moscow, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Bank of England, Palmas

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ Euro zone lending growth tumbles as higher rates bite
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A woman holds Euro banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. Lending to businesses in the currency bloc expanded by 6.3% in December after an 8.3% reading a month earlier, while household credit growth slowed to 3.8% from 4.1%. "Now we see sharp declines in (corporate) borrowing occurring, which is in fact more of a recessionary sign." The monthly flow of loans to companies was a negative 16 billion euros after a minus 4 billion euro reading a month earlier. Growth in the M3 measure of money circulating in the euro zone, often seen as an indicator of future economic expansion, meanwhile dropped to 4.1% from 4.8%, coming well below expectations for 4.6% in a Reuters survey.

But the headline number masked a more malignant trend, with all key components of core inflation accelerating. "Rising core inflation means that not much will sway the European Central Bank from the hawkish path it set out late last year," ING economist Bert Colijn said. The recession was expected to push up unemployment, naturally dampening price pressures. But employment, already at a record high, is actually going up, not down. "The delayed passthrough of high production costs and a still-strong labour market will sustain core inflation," Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics said.

☆ European shares kick off month on firm footing on Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) climbed 0.6%, after gaining 6.8% in November to log its best month since July. Energy stocks (.SXEP) slumped, capping gains for the broader index, as oil prices dipped amid uncertainty ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ meeting. China's stringent measures have contributed to slowing global growth, while aggressive policy tightening and an energy crisis in Europe have also fuelled worries over a recession. "European markets are indeed incorporating the speech from Powell that was well-received by markets already elsewhere. These developments fuel optimism that followed after data showed a smaller-than-expected rise in euro zone inflation on Wednesday, which raised the prospect of a less-aggressive monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank.

☆ Inflation in Europe drops for the first time in 17 months
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN Business —For the first time in 17 months, inflation in Europe is easing. Consumer prices rose by 10% in the year to November, according to the first look at official data for the 19 countries that use the euro. While energy price inflation fell to roughly 35% year-over-year, compared to nearly 42% in October, prices for food, alcohol and tobacco continued to rise sharply. And core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held firm at 5%. Double-digit inflation remains a huge problem for policymakers, who have indicated they will press ahead with efforts to get prices under control.

☆ Inflation isn't going anywhere. Look at Europe's data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN Business —European inflation has accelerated to a new record high as energy and food prices in the region continue to skyrocket. That’s a worrying sign for policymakers who had hoped that easing supply chain pressures would help bring inflation down. US consumer price inflation, by comparison, was 8.2% in September. Despite inflation woes, Europe’s economy is still growing — albeit barely. With interest rates up and the economic outlook uncertain, investment expectations are weakening, too.

☆ Euro zone likely entering recession as price rises hit demand -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"The third decline in a row for the euro zone PMI indicates business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. A reuters poll earlier this month gave a 60% chance of a recession in the euro zone within a year. read morePRICE PRESSURESOverall demand in the euro zone fell to its lowest since November 2020, when the continent was suffering a second wave of COVID-19 infections. The new business PMI fell to 46.0 from 46.9. The euro zone services PMI fell to 48.9 from 49.8, its second month sub-50 and the lowest reading since February 2021.

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